Half way through 2024: Several important transactions and strategic partnerships
Despite persistent uncertainty in the geopolitical landscape during the first half of 2024, the global economy continued to hold up relatively well. Although inflation has declined, the speed and extent of interest rate cuts are still widely debated. Even so, the first half of 2024 was a dynamic and productive period for Aker, as we continued to execute on our strategy, streamline our portfolio, and deliver value to our shareholders. As we highlighted in the first quarter, Aker’s approach moving forward will be more focused, however our commitment to long-term industrial development and shareholder value creation remains firm.
By the numbers, Aker’s Net Asset Value was NOK 63.9 billion at the end of the second quarter, after dividends paid, compared to NOK 60.4 billion the previous quarter. The share price was NOK 615 at the end of the quarter, up 1.1 percent with dividend added back, compared to the Oslo Stock Exchange Benchmark Index (OSEBX) which saw a 7.1 percent increase and Brent oil's 2.4 percent decrease. Aker paid a dividend of NOK 15.50 per share in the quarter, representing a total dividend distribution of NOK 1.2 billion to Aker’s shareholders.
We are excited about the opportunities ahead. Aker is a committed to innovation and investing in cutting-edge technologies, such as AI Robotics, which drive industrial development. One of the most promising advancements in the robotics field is the potential of GenAI-driven robots to learn from people. These robots can adapt and improve their performance based on human interaction, making them incredibly versatile and efficient. Thousands of employees in Aker companies have built vast domain competency over decades. If robots can learn and build on our in-house expertise, the possibilities are endless. These new robots have a humanoid shape which can seamlessly integrate into various work environments, performing tasks that were previously limited to human workers. This represents major opportunities for areas like unmanned offshore assets where humanoid robots can work alongside our teams in remote locations, ensuring improved efficiency, safety, and productivity. The cost of this technology has also been drastically reduced, where the cost of a robot is now equivalent the price of a small car, making it even more accessible.
Furthermore, the rise of AI-driven robotics also brings about the potential for software competency sales at scale. Without access to accurate and complete sets of data, even the most advanced robots will struggle to make sense of the information. In June Cognite was named “2024 Microsoft Energy and Resources Partner of the Year” for its ability to deliver impactful and scalable industrial transformation powered by Cognite Data Fusion, which incorporates AI across the data stack. This honor marks the third consecutive year that Cognite has received this distinction. Together, Cognite and Microsoft are setting the stage for the digital transformation of industries including GenAI solutions and AI robotics for industries.
Elsewhere in the Aker Universe, Aker BP is a pioneer in the use of robotics for offshore operations, as demonstrated by its flagship project, Yggdrasil. The Yggdrasil field is the largest ongoing development on the Norwegian Continental Shelf, with an estimated recoverable resource of 700 million barrels of oil equivalent. The entire Yggdrasil area will be remotely operated from an integrated operations center and control room onshore in Stavanger. This approach sets a new standard in field operations, with remotely controlled operations, unmanned production platforms, new technology, and data-driven decisions and work processes. This leads to a more cost-effective, innovative, and safe oil production.
Moving on to the subject of oil market dynamics, the recent Medium Term Oil Market Report by the IEA raised a lot of questions about when peak oil demand will take place and at which level. IEA predicts that global oil demand will peak in 2029 at 105.6 million barrels per day, meaning a very modest growth of 1.7 million barrels per day over the next five years. This stands in contrast to the growth of 5.2 million barrels per day observed over the past three years. Unlike the IEA’s forecast, Goldman Sachs predicts oil demand at 110.2 million barrels per day in 2030, with peak demand taking place in 2034. Meanwhile, consultancies, such as Energy Aspects and WoodMac, predict oil demand in 2030 to be about 3 million barrels per day higher than the IEA forecast. The supply side of the oil market is much less debated and most agree that supply growth will be strong the next couple of years due to capacity growth in Guyana, Brazil, Canada, Iraq, UAE and in the US shale industry. As for the natural gas market, there are indications that international gas prices may have bottomed out, hinting at a potential market recovery, mainly due to rising LNG demand in Asia.
Amidst the ongoing discussions about the future of the energy sector, Aker BP remains steadfast, strategically navigating the dynamic landscape. The company continues to optimize operations and cultivating strong partnerships. This approach is paving the way for increased efficiency and innovation - for a company already ranked as one of the most efficient producers measured by both cost and emissions per barrel.
Aker BP’s method of work is a shining example of a successful partnership model. In June 2016, Aker controlled Det norske oljeselskap and BP Norway announced they were going to merge and establish Aker BP. From day one, Aker and BP have been focused on creating the largest possible pie for all shareholders and other stakeholders. In the effort to further develop and grow Aker BP, Aker's ownership stake has decreased from 40 to 21.2 percent because of the purchase of Lundin Energy's Norwegian oil and gas operations, and BP's share has been reduced from 30 to 15.9 percent. The Lundin family has entered as a co-owner with 14.4 percent and has become a third contributor to this good partnership.
From the second quarter of 2016 to the end of the second quarter of 2024, Aker BP has been a very profitable investment for all shareholders with an annual return of close to 22 percent. For Aker's shareholders, this means that Aker BP has contributed NOK 41 billion over eight years: a value change of NOK 25 billion, and NOK 16 billion in dividends to Aker. Furthermore, Aker BP has contracts worth approximately NOK 200 billion in work with supplier companies, and the oil company is Norway's largest private taxpayer. In 2022 and 2023, Aker BP contributed a total of NOK 153 billion in taxes to the Norwegian society.
Over the years, Aker has built businesses through collaboration models and partnerships. The common denominator for successful partnerships is that the parties involved understand and appreciate the fundamental difference between “WE” and “YOU AND I” as a guiding principle for behavior. The experiences and lessons we have gained from different partnerships in recent years can be generalized into six design criteria for success:
Alignment on common goals: Partners with agreed upon and defined goals that are worked towards in unison.
Complementary cultures: Corporate cultures that complement each other and foster productive collaboration based on shared values.
Mutual trust: The foundation of any strong partnership. It requires openness and honesty from all involved.
Avoid conflict of interest: A JV ending up competing with an owner, or with owners competing against each other, is deemed to fail.
Adaptability: The ability to swiftly adapt to market and regulatory changes to stay relevant and efficient.
Value creation: The goal is to jointly create greater value than what could be achieved individually.
Sometimes a partnership turns out differently than expected. Sensible partners may most often take advantage of differences in opinions by creating positive tension helping the joint business forward. But if we realize that joining forces with a third party was a mistake, our mindset will typically be to act and move on rather than wasting resources on conflicts and frustrations.
Aker is blessed with sensible partners far beyond Aker BP. The collaboration between SLB and various Aker-owned companies is as an example of a well-functioning partnership. We see a mutual collaboration that has fostered robust commercial opportunities over several years in a growing number of areas. Cognite and SLB have a close collaboration. Aker Solutions, SLB, and Subsea 7 have merged their subsea operations into OneSubsea, with SLB as 70 percent owner. In the second quarter, the transaction and partnership between Aker Carbon Capture (ACC) and SLB were officially finalized. The new company, Aker Carbon Capture Holding, combines ACC’s Advanced Carbon Capture technologies with SLB’s technology solutions.
Another example is SalMar Aker Ocean (SAO). The demand for salmon is rapidly increasing globally, while the supply growth is limited due to perceived and real environmental and disease challenges, combined with area limitations where farming is mainly conducted today. Hence, future growth is likely to be further from shore. SalMar and Aker saw this limitation on existing fish farming as an opportunity and decided to establish SAO as an exclusive, jointly owned company for all activities within semi-offshore and offshore technology development and operations. The agreed mandate from SalMar and Aker is for SAO to drive technology innovation, develop operational excellence, and secure acreage and licenses to become a leading producer semi-offshore and over time offshore, helped by the industrial capabilities mobilized by the two owners as support rather than competitors. The results from the first production rounds are promising with respect to a high survival rate, fewer biological challenges, and strong growth. Aker controls 33.34 percent of the votes in SAO and has a right to harmonize our voting rights and equity interest by increasing the equity interests in SAO from 15 percent to 33.34 percent at the initial valuation as per certain agreed milestones. Aker considers SAO to be a reasonable entry ticket to what is likely to be the next chapter in the salmon fish farming adventure.
A key message in my last CEO letter to Shareholders was about streamlining the Aker portfolio of investments and focusing on larger dividend paying holdings going forward. Actions have already been taken to that effect. Such as developments with Aker Carbon Capture, Philly Shipyard, Solstad Maritime, and Aker BioMarine. A key highlight of this quarter was the new strategic partnership of Aker and American Industrial Partners (AIP). Building upon Aker's strategic vision, we are excited to announce a joint venture that epitomizes our commitment to growth and sustainability in the marine sector. This joint venture will continue to focus on krill-based raw materials for fish and animal use, while Aker BioMarine will be a focused human health and nutrition company.
In conclusion, I am pleased with the progress Aker has made in the first half of 2024. We continue to make strides in our ambition of a more focused and concentrated Aker through strong partnerships and continued innovation. We are in a strong position with a robust portfolio ready to adapt to new opportunities and a solid industrial foundation for long-term growth.
All the best,
Øyvind